The People's Bank of China spoke on Saturday about the value of the yuan, with something like the oracular vagueness and market-moving power of Alan Greenspan speaking before Congress, and as often was the case with Greenspan, it is easy to read between the lines.
The announcement, which you can read in English here, means the end of nearly two years of fixing the Chinese currency to the U.S. dollar, a move that most economists, including many in China, believe is on balance good for both the world and China in the long run. It will make China the most popular attendee at next week's meeting of the G-20 nations in Canada, and it will please traders who have been betting China will allow the yuan to appreciate.
If the Chinese central bank's previous move away from the dollar peg five years ago is any indication, this news likely means that the yuan will rise slowly against the U.S. dollar over the coming months and years. How much is utter guesswork. From July 2005 until July 2008, the yuan appreciated by 21 percent, and has since remained fixed at the current value of roughly 6.83 to the dollar, as Chinese policymakers nervously watched the global economy fall off a cliff. Assuming no great new shocks to the Chinese and global economy -- which is a lot to assume -- the yuan, or RMB, could rise once more against the dollar by a few percent in the months ahead, and by 10 percent or more in the next year or two.
This is all good news for those worried about the possibility of a trade war brewing between China and any number of nations, not least the U.S. And what will be the real impact of this expected appreciation on trade, on U.S. jobs, on Chinese inflation, on Chinese domestic consumption and on the global economy as a whole? Economists and pundits have been pontificating on this for months, most of them concluding with affirmative nods and strokes of mustaches that such a move would be wise, just and good for mankind -- and for long-term Chinese and global economic growth.
Anyone who follows this issue knows Paul Krugman will be happy (unless he argues it is too little, too late). Those who want to delve deeper into this issue for its implications should read this informative treatise from a close observer of China's currency and central bank policy, Michael Pettis. It is lengthy, but one of the main upshots is that other developing nations which compete with China might respond to yuan appreciation by raising the value of their currencies as well -- and the combined effects of such moves would likely help the U.S. economy.
But that is several hops, skips and jumps down the road. For now, enjoy deciphering these words from the Chinese central bank: "The global economy is gradually recovering. The recovery and upturn of the Chinese economy has become more solid with the enhanced economic stability. It is desirable to proceed further with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and increase the RMB exchange rate flexibility."