The bulk of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal would bet on the Chinese yuan rising over the next three years and the euro falling–but they’re split on the direction the U.S. dollar is likely to take.
The Journal surveyed 54 economists, not all of whom answer every question and most of whom are U.S.-based, and asked which one currency they would bet on rising in value over the next three years. Eighteen, or 43% of the 42 who responded to the question, pointed to the Chinese yuan. “Chinese inflation makes artificially low values difficult to sustain,” said Sean M. Snaith of the University of Central Florida.
Twelve economists, or 30% of 40 respondents to the question, chose the euro as the most likely to decline in value over that same period. “The debt crisis still has more iterations to go, which will rattle currency markets,” said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.
And the dollar? Eleven said they would bet the greenback will rise in value over the next three years and exactly the same number said they would bet on its value declining.
The split reflected diverging views over the fate of the U.S. dollar in the long term. In a recent essay University of California, Berkeley, economist Barry Eichengreen predicted that over the next 10 years the global economy will shift away from dollar-centric foreign exchange and toward a world in which several currencies compete for dominance. Twenty-four respondents agreed with that forecast, while 23 disagreed.
“The locus of global demand growth is shifting,” contended Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital, who agreed that the days of dollar dominance are coming to an end. But Snaith at UCF disagreed. “It is not clear another currency would have a companion bond market large or liquid enough for this to come to fruition,” he said. Allen Sinai of Decision Economics said it is already happening. “The shift is away from “Big 3″ currencies–the dollar, euro, yen,” he said.
Indeed, the yen rounded out the top three currencies that economists think will decline in value, tying the dollar as the top choice of 11 respondents. “Japan remains the global growth laggard, with huge government debt,” said Jim O’Sullivan of MF Global.