"Given the fact that developed countries have done nothing but empty talk, they have no right to make further requests," said Xie Zhenhua, China's top climate negotiator, on Dec. 7.
There was no question about whom the Chinese were referring to. On the following day, Su Wei, another climate official, went out of his way to take on President Obama's proposed cap on emissions. Su, at a press conference in Copenhagen, sneered at the American offer, saying it "cannot be regarded as remarkable or notable.” He had equally unkind words for the EU and Japanese proposals.
And what about the West's proposed $10 billion climate fund to help developing nations?
"This $10 billion, if divided by the world population, it is less than $2 per person,” said Su, who then noted that such amount was not enough to buy a cup of coffee in the Danish capital or a coffin in destitute nations. "Climate change is a matter of life and death," he noted.
If it is, the Chinese government does not seem overly concerned. China has rejected any cap on its emissions on the basis that it is a developing nation. The most it might do is accept mandated reductions in "carbon intensity," the amount of carbon produced per unit of growth. At the end of last month, Beijing said by 2020 it would cut carbon intensity by as much as 45% from 2005 levels. But the offer, which won praise at the time it was made, is something that Chinese industry will do in any event as the nation becomes a more efficient energy user. In fact, the goal is so modest that Beijing's past performance suggests China is already on schedule to meeting the announced goal.
Moreover, Beijing has refused to allow any verification of its carbon intensity targets unless it receives funds from developed nations to meet them. And it takes the position that only those projects funded from abroad will be open to international inspection. It's clear, therefore, that what Chinese officials want out of Copenhagen is a commitment from developed nations to contribute money and technology to help Chinese industry become more efficient--and therefore a better competitor on world markets.
In short, Beijing wants to do nothing on climate change while everyone else makes real commitments. This may be a tenable bargaining position for, say, Burkina Faso, but not for a nation boasting the world's third-largest economy--as well as the planet's largest emissions of carbon dioxide. The International Energy Agency estimates that China's emissions will more than double, jumping to 13 billion tons in 2030 from 6 billion in 2006. By 2030, the Chinese will account for 29% of global carbon emissions, up from 21% in 2006. In the future, perhaps 97% of increased emissions will come from the developing world, and half of that from China.
"The country whose emissions are going up dramatically--really dramatically--is China,” said Todd Stern, the State Department climate envoy this week. "You can't even think about solving this problem without having action from China.”
Of course, he's right. China is critical to the success of the Copenhagen climate change conference. Yet it is absurd for Beijing to hold out its hand for contributions from the international community. Even the Beijing-friendly Obama administration seems to think the Chinese cash grab is a bit much. "China has a dynamic economy which has led to it sitting on $2 trillion of reserves," Stern, the American diplomat, noted. "I don't envision public funds, certainly from the United States, going to China."
Perhaps the Chinese also realize that nobody will fund them, but there is logic behind their strategy of asking for money. After all, the best defense is a good offense. "China would not want to sacrifice its economic growth for binding carbon targets any time soon, but it still wants to claim the moral high ground in the debate,” says Professor Pang Zhongying of Renmin University in Beijing.
In these circumstances, the task of winning Beijing's cooperation will not be easy. The Chinese are beginning to see the global environmental movement as a vast conspiracy against them. At the same time, some in China are arguing that global warming is a good thing. They say the Chinese people, throughout their thousands of years of history, have prospered when the climate has turned hot. Analysts argue, for instance, that a general warming of the planet will permit crops to be grown in now-barren areas, such as Inner Mongolia. The banks of the Yellow River, moreover, could produce rice and bamboo.
The world needs more bamboo, of course, but China, which is supposed to dominate this century, cannot be permitted to remain a climate villain. And at this moment, that is exactly what it is.