"Competition between military forces is developing towards the sky and space, it is extending beyond the atmosphere and even into outer space," said the chief of the Chinese air force in the Nov. 2 edition of People's Liberation Army Daily, the official newspaper of China's military. "This development is a historical inevitability and cannot be undone."
What cannot be undone is the effect of General Xu Qiliang's words. Chinese state media, however, tried to do just that, contending that the foreign media misinterpreted him. Then Chinese diplomats got in on the act. "China has never and will not participate in an outer space arms race in any form," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu on Nov. 5. "The position of China on this point remains unchanged."
China's position--at least up until this week--was that no nation should use space for the purposes of war. In February of last year, Beijing and Moscow introduced a draft space treaty at a disarmament conference in Geneva. The Bush administration opposed it on the sensible ground that a deal would be unverifiable--any object in space can be used as a weapon if it can be maneuvered to arrange a collision, for instance. Moreover, a ground-launched missile can also be used to knock out satellites, space stations or shuttles.
The Russians and Chinese, in all probability, were just engaging in a public relations exercise last year because they obviously had no intention of ever allowing the intrusive inspections that would have to be built into any meaningful treaty. Yet, minutes after his inauguration, President Obama called Beijing's and Moscow's bluff by coming out in favor of a global agreement to keep weapons out of the heavens.
In response to Obama's countermove, Beijing--or at least the People's Liberation Army--has now changed tack and announced its intention to begin the space arms race in earnest. General Xu's bold words, interestingly enough, come at the same time that some in Washington are calling for civilian cooperation with the Chinese in space.
And why would we do that? The U.S. shuttle fleet will be retired next year. Its replacement, the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, is not slated to make its first crewed flight until 2015, and it may not fly until well after that. In the interim, NASA intends to rely on Russian launch vehicles to get Americans into orbit.
The United States, therefore, will be at the complete mercy of Moscow when the last shuttle is grounded--unless we are willing to hitchhike with the only other nation that will be able to put a human into space then. "I think it's possible in principle to develop the required degree of confidence in the Chinese," said John Holdren, President Obama's science advisor, in April. And he is not alone in this view. According to the just-released report of the Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee, better known as the Augustine report, "China offers significant potential in a space partnership."
In one sense, this statement is correct. After all, China has put a man into space three times. Moreover, the Chinese have said on numerous occasions that they are prepared to work with us.
So what is the problem with doing so? First, even though the United States will soon find itself without a way to put humans into orbit, any partnership would essentially be a one-way transfer of technology from us to the Chinese. Second, the Chinese did not respond favorably to past American efforts--made during the administration of George W. Bush--to involve them in cooperative space efforts.
Third, there is no such thing as a civilian space program in China. The China National Space Administration is really a military operation. Therefore, we have to ask ourselves a question: Should we transfer technology to a potential adversary so that it can improve its war-fighting capabilities?
General Kevin Chilton, the chief of the U.S. Strategic Command, called for a dialogue with his Chinese counterparts the day after General Xu's space-race declaration. "Where they're heading is one of the things a lot of people would like to understand better," Chilton said.
But do we really need to talk to the Chinese to figure out their intentions? In August 2006, the Chinese lasered at least one American satellite with the apparent intention of blinding it, a direct attack on the United States. In the following January, the People's Liberation Army destroyed one of its old weather satellites with a ground-launched missile, sending more than 35,000 fragments into low-earth orbit.
The Chinese want to dominate space. General Xu did the United States a favor by removing any doubt about where his country stands. Whether we like it or not, there is now a brutal competition between the United States and China to control the high ground of space.