Just read a great post over at Seth Godin's blog. The fact it was a great post is not the least bit unusual for that blog, but that I can relate it to legal work in China (well sorta, anyway) is. The post is entitled "The problem with doing it by heart" and its gist is that people sometimes become such creatures of habit that they fail to question and analyze and maybe even modify the way they do things. The post concludes with the following lesson:
The next time you or one of your people starts rattling off the obvious truth by heart, wonder about whether it's obvious because it's true, or true because it's obvious.
So true.
Many years ago at my old firm, a young immigration lawyer (who was always to angry about something) complained to me how a litigation lawyer in the firm had been dissing him. The immigration lawyer had gone to the litigation lawyer with a question on court procedure and the litigation lawyer told the immigration lawyer he did not know the answer and that the immigration lawyer should look it up and return if he had any problems. The immigration lawyer found it impossible to believe that the litigation lawyer did not know the answer off the top of his head and he thought the litigator was intentionally stonewalling.
I chewed out the immigration lawyer. I pointed out that well over half this litigator's cases were taking place outside the state of Washington. I pointed out that Washington itself has essentially two courts, the State and the Federal. I also told him that among all those courts, it is a near certainty that some of them changed a rule within the last year or so. There is no way this litigator could know the court procedures of all of these courts by heart and, in fact, it would be extremely dangerous if he were to think he did. It would be dangerous because it would mean that he had stopped checking to make sure.
Many years ago, in maybe the first legal article I ever published, I said something somewhat similar to Godin in my article setting forth the "Four Essential Principles of Emerging Market Success:"
PRINCIPLE TWO: Keep an Open Mind. Assume Nothing.Doing business in an emerging market means taking nothing for granted. I have a mantra for my own legal work in these countries that translates well to the business world: "Assume nothing, but assume that you are assuming things without even realizing you are doing so."
Things will be different. Very different. Things you take for granted in your home country might not exist in the emerging market country. Things you take for granted in your home country might be the exact opposite in the emerging market country. Things you think will be totally different in the emerging market country may be exactly the same. Things you thought you knew about emerging market countries based on what you know from another emerging market country may be completely different in a neighboring country, or even in another region within the same country.
The principle, one more time: Keep an open mind, and assume nothing.
As everyone who has done even just a little business with China knows, this is particularly true of China where one can eat at their favorite restaurant one day and then go back a few days later and find it and the building and the block and maybe even the entire neighborhood gone. As far as I know, there is no country in the world where laws and regulations change so frequently. I can remember discussing a Chinese law or regulation with another lawyer and we soon realized we were discussing different versions. We both claimed the other was using an outdated version. I proudly told him it could not be me because mine was the one that had just come out three weeks earlier. He put me in my place by letting me know that his had just come out yesterday!
China will enact a law or regulation, see how it works for a few months, and then revoke it or change. China will talk about enacting a law or regulation and then when it becomes clear public opinion is strongly against it, it will back down. For a very recent example of this, check out my post, "China's Internet Censoring. Hate To Say I Told You So, But I Told You So....", on Green Dam. China also has a very real habit of enacting new laws and regulations and then never enforcing them. This often happens when the new law or regulation is negatively received.
The bottom line on China is never get too comfortable....
What do you think?
Read more: China And Doing It By Heart. One Day You Are In And The Next Day You Are Out.
Inititially Apple was talking to China Mobile, the largest mobile operator in China with over 70% in market share. Unfortunately China Mobile uses TD-SCDMA technology, China's own 3G version and it is now working with HTC in Taiwan on the OPhone. China Unicom, uses W-CDMA 3G technology and it is the only fit for Apple with the same 3G technology. (China Telecom uses CDMA-2000). How many Apple buyers in China will understand that Wi-Fi will be disabled in their Apple's 3G handsets? Yes, Apple iPhones will sell well in China despite its much higher price (and lots of copycat versions were already sold) but this is like marrying your second or third choice of brides. Applications will develop and worst case is you pay via your cell phone company.
If making money is China's real religion, then Kong Xin is a true believer. Grinning like a missionary and dressed like one, too, the 34-year-old entrepreneur was standing in line at Amway China's Beijing headquarters eagerly waiting to shell out $150 for tubes of toothpaste. For Kong, one of Amway China's 200,000 active sales representatives, the secret to prosperity amid the country's chaotic economic growth tastes like mint, and he can't get enough of it.
Through a bitter global downturn, Amway, the global direct-sales company, is having a banner year, thanks to China. The country is now Amway's biggest market, with gross sales soaring 27% to 17 billion yuan, or $2.5 billion, in 2008. (Closely held Amway doesn't release net figures after subtracting for commissions and cost of goods.) The company is projecting a similar increase in 2009 and is investing $15 million in a new factory in Guangzhou.
Success is fueling the daydreams of many like Kong, who usually learn about Amway from friends, family and co-workers breathlessly pushing the company's 200 products. No matter that these wares often are priced significantly higher than similar products in China's department stores and corner shops. China's newly wealthy, eager to have the biggest and the best, are clamoring to own a 50-year-old brand that in the West is more commonly associated with past-generation Americana. Amway, whose Michigan parent Alticor is the 44th-largest U.S. private company on FORBES' list, has struggled at home in recent years. Some 80% of sales now come from abroad.
In the first half of 2009, sales figures of China's colour TVs plummeted considerably. Himfr's data show that in the first half of 2009, sales volume in each month showed a downward trend in varying degrees compare to last year. In the first half-year of 2009, the total sales were 15 million units, down by 20% year-on-year.
Although the sales volume of China's colour TV market slipped, the LCD flat-panel TV market remained strong. Flat-panel colour TV enterprises have accelerated the pace of transformation, with main enterprises drastically reducing production of CRT TVs.
At present, LCD TV accounts for about 37% of the small and medium size colour TV market, which is a growth of 3 times compared to same period of last year; for 28 to 32-inch medium-size TVs, LCD TV accounts for more than 60%.
Huge fuel hedging gains helped Air China post the biggest first-half profit since it went public five years ago. Nevertheless, China's national flag carrier anticipated a bumpy ride ahead for its domestic flights, rocked by cut-throat competition at home.
Air China booked 2.9 billion yuan ($424.5 million) in net profit for the six-month period ended June, 155.3% higher than 1.1 billion yuan ($161.0 million) that the airline gained in the first half of last year, marking the highest half-year springtime earnings over the past 5 years since its debut on Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2004.
The record profit mostly came from the substantial extraordinary gain from fuel hedging. Volatile fuel prices shot up in the second quarter of this year and thus greatly increased the fair value of Air China's fuel hedging contracts. The Beijing-based air carrier realized a fair value gain from hedging contracts of 1.5 billion yuan ($219.6 million) as of the end of June, reversing from a loss of 7.2 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) at the end of last year.
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